Vietnam’s tourism recovery has been widely celebrated for surpassing pre-pandemic international arrival benchmarks in 2025. Yet beneath the headline numbers lies a structural imbalance that may define the industry’s trajectory over the next decade: the growing concentration of inbound demand in a small number of Northeast Asian markets, particularly China.

The rapid return of Chinese travelers has undeniably accelerated Vietnam’s recovery. At the same time, it has amplified the sector’s exposure to a single external demand engine. As the industry transitions from recovery to long-term growth, the challenge is no longer rebuilding visitor numbers but managing the systemic risks associated with market concentration.

In 2025, Vietnam welcomed 5.3 million visitors from China, representing a 41.3% increase compared with 2024. This surge was instrumental in pushing total international arrivals to 21.2 million, allowing Vietnam to effectively close the pandemic recovery gap.

The scale of this rebound also reshaped regional dynamics. Vietnam received more Chinese visitors than Thailand for the first time in recent years, capturing a larger share of outbound demand from mainland China than its traditional regional competitor.

However, the recovery also revealed how heavily Vietnam’s tourism performance depends on Northeast Asia. China and South Korea together account for a disproportionately large share of international arrivals, meaning the overall performance of the industry is increasingly tied to the travel cycles of just two markets.

This concentration creates a tourism economy that is highly responsive to external demand shocks.

The rapid expansion of Chinese arrivals since 2022 has produced headline growth figures that appear extraordinary. Between 2022 and 2025, arrivals from China grew at a compound annual rate exceeding 200%.

Yet, according to Vietnam Travel Landscape 2026 report, much of this growth reflects a statistical rebound rather than structural expansion.  For several years, outbound travel from China remained severely restricted due to pandemic controls. The growth observed in 2024 and 2025 largely represents the restoration of travel patterns that previously existed, rather than the creation of new demand.

As outbound travel stabilizes, this recovery-driven momentum is likely to weaken. Once the remaining recovery gap closes, further growth will depend less on pent-up demand and more on Vietnam’s ability to compete for travelers within a highly competitive regional market.

In practical terms, this means the tourism sector may soon encounter a ceiling where visitor numbers plateau unless new markets begin to play a larger role.

Even as arrival numbers recover, the structure of the Chinese outbound market is evolving in ways that fundamentally reshape demand.

Prior to the pandemic, Vietnam’s Chinese market was largely characterized by high-volume group travel, often organized through traditional tour operators. The current recovery shows a noticeable shift toward more independent and digitally mediated travel behavior, particularly among younger travelers.

This transition is clearly reflected in travel patterns during Golden Week 2025, one of the most important travel periods for Chinese outbound tourism. According to industry data, 56% of travelers chose Free Independent Travel (FIT), while 17% opted for private tours, and only 27% participated in traditional group tours. In revenue terms, FIT now accounts for 47.3% of the Chinese outbound travel market, whereas group travel once represented roughly half of total market value prior to the pandemic.

Digital ecosystems are playing a central role in this shift. Travel discovery, trip planning, and bookings are increasingly mediated through online platforms, mobile payment systems, and social media content, which now function as primary channels shaping destination awareness and travel decisions.

This shift changes the competitive landscape for destinations. Instead of competing primarily through tour operator distribution networks, countries must now compete through digital visibility, flexible travel experiences, and more diverse tourism products.

Destinations that fail to adapt to these evolving expectations risk losing relevance even if overall outbound demand continues to grow.

Even as China’s outbound market evolves, one characteristic remains unchanged: its sensitivity to policy shifts.

Unlike many Western outbound markets, Chinese travel flows can be strongly influenced by government policy, visa regulations, diplomatic relations, and aviation capacity decisions. This means that demand can expand rapidly under favorable conditions but contract just as quickly if those conditions change.

For destinations heavily reliant on Chinese arrivals, this creates a layer of volatility that lies largely outside the control of tourism operators or destination marketers.

Vietnam’s experience during the pandemic demonstrated how quickly such dependence can translate into vulnerability. The abrupt disappearance of Chinese group travel in 2020 exposed just how much of the regional tourism ecosystem had been built around that single market.

As Vietnam’s tourism industry enters its next growth phase, the strategic challenge is gradually shifting from recovery to resilience.

The issue is no longer attracting more visitors in absolute terms. Instead, it is managing the composition of demand.

In 2025, the top five inbound markets accounted for more than half of Vietnam’s international arrivals. This level of concentration means that fluctuations in just one or two major markets can significantly affect national tourism performance.

Reducing that exposure will require expanding the role of emerging markets. India, Australia, and several European countries have shown promising growth potential, supported by improved connectivity and evolving travel demand.

Diversifying the visitor base does not mean replacing China as Vietnam’s largest market. Rather, it means building a broader demand portfolio that allows the industry to absorb shocks without destabilizing overall growth.

In early 2023, China announced it would reopen its borders to foreign tourists for the first time after 3 years of closure to follow the zero-COVID policy. Up to now, China has resumed outbound group tours for Chinese citizens to another 60 countries and destinations.

The reopening of the Chinese tourism market can be considered the most notable highlight in this first quarter of 2023. The tourism industry of many countries around the world, especially in Asia, is expecting the return of the Chinese market creating a significant impact, while the global tourism market is not showing signs of growth as expected.

How have the travel trends in the Chinese tourism market changed? Is the previous approach of Asian destinations still suitable in a different industry after COVID? A prudent data-driven outreach plan is what destinations and businesses need now.

First of all, let’s take a look at the Chinese market in the past and review the initial forecasts about the changing trends of Chinese tourists in the near future for good preparation.

China is the world’s largest tourism market

In 2019, up to 155 million mainland Chinese people traveled abroad. It was 50 million higher than the world’s second-largest outbound tourism market, the United States (99.74 million arrivals). The number of Chinese outbound tourists grew at an average rate of 5.8% per year during the ten-year period from 2009 to 2019, higher than the world average growth of 5.1% per year (UNWTO).

Chinese people not only traveled a lot but also spent the most on outbound trips in the world. According to UNWTO, Chinese tourists spent up to 254.6 billion USD for outbound travel in 2015, accounting for one-fifth of global expenditures.

China’s peak travel seasons are Lunar New Year, summer vacation and Golden Week. The Chinese New Year holiday lasts from 7-15 days, total time off in some places is up to 40 days. Meanwhile, summer vacation takes place in June and July after students have their summer break. The most notable is the Golden Week holiday which lasts continuously for the first 7 days of October. These are very important holidays in China when people often visit their family and travel, especially long-term outbound trips.

Chinese tourists tend to prefer Asian destinations as 90% of Chinese’s outbound trips were to destinations in this region. Top Asian destinations for Chinese tourists are Thailand, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam. According to the China Tourism Academy (CTA) report, Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia are top destinations for Chinese travelers. The top three Asian destinations (Thailand, Japan, and South Korea) accounted for more than 50% of the total number of Chinese tourists in the region in 2019.

Outside of Asia, Chinese tourists remain loyal to traditional long-distance destinations such as Europe and North America, with more than 21 million trips made in 2019 to the two regions.

Receiving up to 90% of the total number of Chinese outbound tourists thanks to its advantages in cost and routes, it is easy to see that China is also the largest inbound market for many destinations in Southeast Asia in particular and Asia in general. With China’s top destinations in 2019 including Thailand, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and Singapore, China dominated the inbound market of these all countries.

In 2019, Thailand welcomed over 40 million international tourists. China ranked first with 11 million arrivals, accounting for a quarter of Thailand’s total inbound visitors. In Singapore and South Korea, China also led with 3.6 and 5.5 million arrivals to the two countries, respectively. For Japan, China also ranked at No. 1 with almost twice as many visitors as South Korea (No.2, 5.5 million visitors). In Vietnam, China was also the largest inbound market with more than 5.8 million visitors, accounting for one-third of the total number of international visitors.

Chinese tourists return but are they still the same?

Southeast Asia and Asia remain top priority of Chinese travelers

According to the latest survey from Trip.com Group regarding destination search trends for Chinese tourists after reopening, the popular destinations they prefer are still Singapore, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. For long-haul destinations, the US, UK and Australia are their favorite destinations.

In another survey by ITB China, up to 76% of the country’s tour operators think that Southeast Asia will be the top destination for Chinese tourists, thanks to the advantages of the sea and high-class resorts.

Basically, the list has not changed much compared to 2019, except for Vietnam. It used to be the fifth largest outbound destination of Chinese tourists in Asia before the pandemic, but was not included in the top 10 of Dragon Trail survey in January 2023.

Countries in the region can keep their hope for the Chinese market once they are ready to return to outbound tourism.

However, there are some opinions that it is still too early to confirm anything about the travel trends or destination choices of Chinese tourists. Although according to China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI), the Chinese outbound tourism market is forecast to reach two-thirds of 2019, equivalent to 110 million visitors, on the other hand, there are many predictions that 70-80% of Chinese tourists will prioritize domestic trips because of the limitations of aviation recovery compared to 2019.

In fact, since the country reopened in early January, Chinese people have faced shortages of flights and difficulty in booking. These have prevented them from prioritizing outbound travel. According to data from Fliggy, from February 6 to February 12, the number of international flights from China only recovered about 9% compared to the 2019 level. In addition, the issue of Chinese passport renewal or visa policy will also affect the travel trend of this market in the coming times.

Therefore, though it is likely to continue to be the top destination for Chinese tourists in the near future, the competitive pressure between countries in the region will increase a lot compared to 2019. Hopes for a quick return of this market or an even distribution of visitors as before is unlikely this year.

The competitive advantages of countries and destinations will therefore mainly focus on favorable visa policies, direct flight routes and attractive promotions.

Chinese tourists may not travel the way they used to

Before the pandemic, the majority (55%) of Chinese tourists chose to book overseas travel through group tour operators, even as acceptance of independent travel increased (according to Fliggy), but it’s different now. According to Trip.com, Chinese tourists are moving towards small groups with more independent trips. A younger generation of tourists is showing an interest in small group tours, with more flexible arrangements, high-quality services and diverse experiences.

Nature-oriented and outdoor activities are also getting more attention than before. Besides, they are increasingly focusing on sustainability. According to a 2022 Dragon Trail International survey, 48.3% of prospective travelers said they would choose accommodation with environmentally friendly operations, and 37.9% will personally contribute to the local environment by picking up trash or cycling. Moreover, their top reasons to travel overseas were to try local food (60.8%), experience local life (56%) and visit the beach and sea (51.8%).

Destinations should be ready for shifts

The return of the Chinese market is certainly a positive sign for most countries in the region. Southeast Asian countries have many advantages to become the top choice of this market in the next period.

Nevertheless, we should make clear that the return of the Chinese market will also be more challenging and competitive for destinations and businesses. Like other markets, Chinese tourists will certainly be affected by cost sensitivities or fear when returning to outbound travel after more than three years of disconnection from the whole world. Moreover, changes in travel trends and experience needs of “new Chinese tourists” after the pandemic require destinations in the region to have a completely different approach.

Therefore, destinations that want to attract Chinese tourists need to understand the market segments in which they have the most attractive advantages and also the target segments they want to aim for the most. A proper segmentation strategy is a must for destinations and local businesses to have successful marketing and product plans.

Destinations and businesses need to spend more time studying changes in the tourist behavior of their target segments and how to effectively respond to those diverse changes, rather than focus only on simply providing services as before.

China announced the list of 20 countries that Chinese travel agents could organize group tours, and the bad news is that Vietnam is not included. Without the pre-pandemic largest outbound market, what should we do? To reach the target of 8 million foreign tourists, which alternative markets will we redirect?

Context

Chinese tourists rarely come to Vietnam as individuals but in large groups. Now, China does not allow tour operators to organize tours to Vietnam, which means that the country can hardly welcome Chinese tourists. This will be a huge loss to Vietnam’s tourism industry.

Nguyen Van Thanh, former Vice President of Nha Trang – Khanh Hoa Tourism Association, commented: “It is very severe because no market can replace China, especially for Nha Trang and Khanh Hoa.” Before COVID-19, Chinese tourists accounted for over 70% of the province’s total foreign tourists. The number of domestic visitors in 2022 increased dramatically but still nothing much compared to the number of accommodations here. He said that this year, the province couldn’t expect that to repeat, because domestic tourists will not return here many times a year, especially when the international travel is back.

With the absence of Chinese tourists, instability in the European and Russian markets, we may once again not meet the set target of welcoming international visitors. In addition to expanding into other markets, travel businesses and destinations still hope the troubles are solved to welcome visitors from this largest market.

Facing new challenges, the Government and ministries need to dialogue with partners, find out the real problem, whether it can be solved, and find a way to solve it quickly. It can be that the visa policy is not open, the product is not attractive, scams still exist, and more.

Potential markets to replace China

Among markets, India is being expected. However, in fact, only some big names such as Da Nang, Ho Chi Minh City, or Hanoi can receive them with a small number of visitors. Moreover, the market is still quite complicated, while Vietnam hasn’t met their needs in terms of products and tourism infrastructure.

Nguyen Van Thanh also noted that Australia and the US were potential markets. In his opinion, they are large markets with high spending power, but far and difficult to reach. Vietnam needs time to welcome a large number of visitors from these two countries.

Not only China, before the pandemic, other markets in Northeast Asia, including South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, also sent a very huge number of visitors to Vietnam. Nevertheless, a recent survey of The Outbox Company shows that their levels of awareness about Vietnam is quite low. That’s why the Government, destinations and travel businesses in Vietnam need to soon find new ways to approach and attract them more.

To make faster and more accurate decisions, they will need market research data. The Outbox Company with diverse and useful solutions will help businesses and destinations know the insights of international visitors, thereby adjusting and developing their products/services and images.

After the zero-Covid and entry policy were eased, Chinese outbound tourists have increased their search for foreign destinations. Then what should we do in order to attract visitors from Vietnam’s pre-pandemic largest inbound market? Learn about the sentiment as well as liking and behaviors of Chinese tourists to come up with right decisions and policies.

More than half will travel outside of China within a year of reopening

According to research by Dragon Trail, a marketing solutions company based in China, more than half of travelers (52%) plan to travel outside of mainland China within a year. 84% will plan a trip abroad within two years of reopening. 16% said that they wouldn’t travel overseas. The study results also showed gender differences. Specifically, women are more likely to plan travel as soon as restrictions are eased than men.

Nature tourism remains the top priority, followed by theme parks and road trips

The trip to discover nature is the top choice of Chinese people. Amusement parks, water parks and zoos are tied for 2nd place, followed by self-guided road trips. In addition, sports tourism is increasingly popular, possibly thanks to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar. Meanwhile, cultural tourism drops sharply, probably because the need for relaxation among Chinese tourists is higher than the need to learn about culture after prolonged restrictions. Interest in island tourism also decreases.

Online source is still the top information source

Social media platforms, websites and OTAs (Online Travel Agent) continue to be the top channels for Chinese to access information about destinations. This highlights the importance of using digital channels to reach potential visitors. Travel bloggers are also preferred by nearly half of mainland tourists.

Prioritize price, safety and convenience when choosing travel products

When it comes to travel products, price and safety are still decisive factors. Moreover, convenience should be emphasized in tourism products to motivate travel. Businesses and destinations need to focus on these factors if they want to please Chinese visitors.

Why Chinese tourists travel abroad

Trying local cuisine and lifestyle is the main purpose of Chinese tourists for their next overseas trips. Beaches and seaside destinations are also on the wish lists of more than half of respondents. Additionally, visiting iconic museums and architecture still ranks high.

According to a representative of Cam Ranh International Airport, there will be 8 flights between Vietnam and China from January 18 to 26, with an average capacity of 150-180 people each day.

In 7 days of Tet, Cam Ranh Airport is expected to have 7 international flights to and from each day, boosting the total number of flights from 28 to 32.

To ensure safety, Cam Ranh Airport will coordinate with relevant parties to execute Covid-19 prevention measures according to the guidance of the Ministry of Health such as streaming, ensuring a well-ventilated site without stagnation, and ensuring that 100% of passengers are tested for Covid-19.

Suspected cases of Covid-19 infection will be isolated for medical treatment. If accompanying guests do not have Covid-19 symptoms, they can enter the nation normally.

In Vietnam, Khanh Hoa is one of the most popular tourist destination for Chinese visitors. According to data, in 2019, the province welcomed 3.5 million overseas visitors, with China accounting for 70%.