In the latest forecast from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), it is said that global airline profits will be higher than originally forecast. The number of people taking flights will be close to pre-pandemic levels.

According to IATA, about 4.35 billion passengers are expected to fly this year, close to the record 4.54 billion people in 2019.

In addition, the association also estimates that in 2023, net profits will reach 9.8 billion USD – double the 4.7 billion USD figure given in December 2022. The main reason is China lifting restrictions to control the pandemic.

Willie Walsh, General Director of IATA said: “Airline financial performance in 2023 is beating expectations.” Although the net profit was $9.8 billion, a large number, considering the industry’s revenue of $800 billion, the net profit margin here is only 1.2%. “After deep COVID-19 losses, even a net profit margin of 1.2 percent is something to celebrate,” he said.

Previously, aviation analytics firm Cirium released a new analysis showing passenger traffic by global airlines could surpass 2019 levels before the end of the year. In addition, the International Aviation Group (IAG) recently said it expects capacity to reach about 97% of 2019 levels for the whole of 2023.

However, despite the recovery of the aviation industry after the COVID-19 pandemic, many factors are considered to have an impact on IATA’s forecast such as fuel prices, aircraft shortages, and labor shortages which make air tickets more expensive.