In May 2023, tourism in Southeast Asia continued to recover, but the overall performance was mixed. International tourist arrivals in Southeast Asia decreased by 3.8% in May 2023, from 6,048,862 to 5,819,587. Thailand remained the most popular destination, with 10,673,490 arrivals, or 36% of the total. Singapore was the second most popular destination, with 5,151,604 arrivals, or 18% of the total. 

Despite a drop of 8.35%, Thailand saved its crown as the leading destination in South East Asia with 2,013,852 arrivals in May. Singapore welcomed 1,112,486 arrivals – a drop of 1.45% compared to last month. Vietnam was out of the top three destinations and was taken by Indonesia with 945,590 arrivals. Indonesia also achieved the highest growth rate in the area with an increase of 8.44%.

Recovery and tourism target rate

Until May, Cambodia had an outstanding recovery index and was near to achieving full recovery (93.48%). The second and third were Indonesia (75.68%) and Singapore (74.66%). The lowest recovery rate in the area was in the Philippines with a rate of 62.61%.

Vietnam maintained its performance in achieving its 2023 target with the highest completion rate of 57.50% as of May followed by Indonesia and Cambodia. As mentioned previously, the tourism target rate is purposed to serve as a reference and not a comparison between destinations.

Source: Statistics from National Tourism Departments

Here are some highlights

Top 3 Southeast Asian destinations with the largest numbers of international arrivals in May 2023:

Thailand: 2,013,852. In May, Thailand had the second-to-lowest growth rate as well as the lowest target reach but still maintained its position as the leading Southeast Asia destination.

Singapore: 1,112,486. Singapore continued to experience a light drop in May, recovered almost 75% compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Indonesia: 945,590. Indonesia was officially in the top three for the first time this year. It took out Vietnam with an impressive growth rate of 8.44%, the highest growth rate in the area. This significance is the result of some key events that happened in May such as the ASEAN summit. From July, Indonesia also sets a new target of 8.5 million foreign arrivals in 2023 instead of 7.4 million arrivals as before.

Top 3 Southeast Asian destinations with the highest recovery rate in May 2023:

Cambodia: 93.48%
Indonesia: 75.68%
Singapore: 74.66%

In June, Indonesia remained the country with the largest capacity in the aviation sector, making up 29% of the region’s capacity. Vietnam remained the second largest and only country with increased capacity in June 2023, accounting for 19% of the region’s aviation capacity. Thailand was third-placed with 5.8 million seats and accounted for 16% of the capacity of the region.

Source: OAG, updated 6/30/2023

The top route in Southeast Asia remains Hanoi (HAN) to Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) with 927k seats, an increase of 9% in June compared to May 2023. Five of the top ten domestic routes in Southeast Asia are internal Indonesian flights with Jakarta (CGK) to Denpasar-Bali (DPS) continuing to be the largest of these and ranked second largest in the region. Besides, capacity grew on all Vietnamese routes in the top ten, with Nha Trang Cam Ranh (CXR) to Hanoi (HAN) growing by 47% compared to last month.

With regard to international routes, Singapore continues to be a key hub in Southeast Asia, and seven of the top ten international routes in the region start or end in Singapore. The top four international routes are between Singapore and other major regional hub airports – Kuala Lumpur (KUL), Jakarta (CGK), Bangkok (BKK), and Denpasar-Bali (DPS). Kuala Lumpur (KUL) to Singapore (SIN) remains the busiest flight route with 418k seats. The following routes grew the most in the top ten this month increasing capacity by 11%:
• Penang (PEN) to Singapore (SIN)
• Bangkok (BKK) to Hong Kong (HKG)

During the initial quarter of 2023, international tourism in Southeast Asia experienced a relatively subdued growth rate. Nevertheless, despite the advent of April marking the onset of the low travel season, tourism activities within the region persist in exhibiting encouraging indications.

Increase in total number of international visitors

The total number of international arrivals to five Southeast Asian countries (including Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines) increased by 3.67% over the previous month, from 5,420,067 arrivals to 5,618,733 arrivals.

Although there was a slight decrease in the number of inbound visitors to Thailand, it still maintained its position as the number one destination with 2,182,100 arrivals. The number of international visitors to the Philippines also decreased by 3.7% compared to March. The remaining three countries all achieved significant increases. In particular, Singapore showed the highest growth rate of international visitors in April, reaching 10.65%, from 1,020,000 to 1,128,594 arrivals. Vietnam was not far behind with an increase of 9.91%, followed by Indonesia (about 6.9%).

Recovery and tourism target rate

In terms of recovery, Singapore topped the index in April with a rate of 70.54%, followed closely by the Philippines at 69.09%. The other three destinations had similar recovery indicators.

Vietnam maintained its performance in achieving its 2023 target, with the highest completion rate of 46.05% as of April, far ahead of other destinations such as Thailand or Singapore (over 28%).

Source: Statistics from National Tourism Departments

Highlights

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with largest numbers of international arrivals in April 2023:

1. Thailand: 2,182,100. Although this number decreased by 1.66% compared to the previous month, Thailand is leading the region as the most visited destination in Southeast Asia.
2. Singapore: 1,128,594. Of the five Southeast Asian destinations, the Lion City is the only one that has continuously recorded an increase in the number of international arrivals during the first four months of 2023. However, this is still not enough for Singapore to reach one-third of its 2023 target.
3. Vietnam: 984,146. This is the month that Vietnam has welcomed the most international tourists since the beginning of the year.

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with highest recovery rate in April 2023:

1. Singapore: 70.54%
2. Philippines: 69.09%
3. Indonesia: 67.95%

In the aviation sector in May, Indonesia still had the largest total seating capacity, accounting for 30% of the entire region with 10,847,492 seats. The rankings have changed compared to previous months. Specifically, Vietnam became the second country in terms of capacity with 6,242,626 seats, an average increase of 4% per day. This number accounted for 17% of regional capacity, pushing Thailand to third place with 5,998,922 seats, accounting for 16% of Southeast Asia’s capacity. Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore followed in terms of total aircraft seating capacity.

 Source: OAG, updated 5/30/2023

In May, the busiest domestic flight route in Southeast Asia remained Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City, boasting a total seating capacity of 908,298. The subsequent two domestic routes in the top three were both from Indonesia: Jakarta – Bali (722,924) and Jakarta – Sumatera Utara (541,580). Given a total seating capacity exceeding 10.8 million, it is unsurprising that half of the 10 busiest domestic routes in Southeast Asia are located in Indonesia.

With regard to international routes, Singapore persisted as the primary international air transport nexus of Southeast Asia. The top three international routes in May 2023 were Kuala Lumpur – Singapore (427,124 seats), Jakarta – Singapore (346,792 seats), and Bangkok – Singapore (275,748 seats). Furthermore, 7 out of the 10 largest international routes in the region originated from Singapore.

According to the latest Outbox Capture, in the first quarter of 2023, Malaysia was the second largest source market of five South East Asian destinations, following only South Korea. In the top international tourist markets of the region, China, Korea, the US or India are often listed. The Malaysian market does not seem to be mentioned or exploited much. However, the market is showing its significant potential and position for the South East Asian tourism industry.

Malaysian outbound market growth: Not fast but steady

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for outbound travel of Malaysian people was constantly increasing. According to UNWTO, in 2017, there were 12.6 million Malaysian outbound travelers. It increased to 14 million in 2018, and reached 14.5 million one year later. Although the number of outbound tourists from this country did not increase rapidly, it is considered to increase steadily.

Malaysian tourists’ spending on overseas trips has also increased year on year. The highest increase was 12% in 2017. By the end of 2019, the spending for outbound travel of the market reached more than 12.3 billion USD.

The top international destinations of Malaysian tourists are mainly in Southeast Asia. Before the pandemic broke out, in 2019, Thailand received the most Malaysian visitors with 4.2 million arrivals, followed by Indonesia (2.9 million). China welcomed 1.3 million visitors, Singapore tied with 1.2 million Malaysian visitors. Vietnam was the last one in the top 5 with more than 600,000 visitors, according to the Malaysian Outbound Travel Profile by Pear Anderson. Malaysian tourists especially like Southeast Asia when traveling abroad. It is still one of their notable behavioral characteristics up until now.

The Malaysian market in Q1 2023: SEA destinations remain top choice

In the first 3 months of 2023, when the key Chinese market had not really returned, based on data from the National Tourism Departments, there were more than 1.68 million Malaysian outbound tourists to 5 South East Asian destinations (including Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines). It accounted for 10.71% of the total market share of the top 5 source markets in 5 countries, and was approximately the share of the largest market, South Korea (11.74%).

Malaysia was the largest inbound market of Thailand and Indonesia, ranked in the top 3 largest source markets of Singapore and ranked 7th in Vietnam in Q1.

In South East Asia only, Thailand was the most attractive destination for Malaysian tourists in the first 3 months of the year with 921,042 visitors. Following was Indonesia with 363,924 visitors. Singapore ranked 3rd in the destinations chosen by the most Malaysian outbound tourists (258,626 arrivals). Vietnam received 115,303 visitors from this market.

More attention needed

Currently, although Malaysia is holding a large market share in South East Asia, it seems that the market has not been focused. There have not been a lot of tourism products, services, and programs dedicated to the Malaysian market.

As mentioned above, whether before or after the pandemic, Malaysian tourists always have a high demand for outbound travel, and love Asian destinations, especially those in South East Asia. So, instead of trying to tap into remote markets, why don’t we focus on close and potential markets like Malaysia? If being well understood, responded to and exploited, Malaysia is likely to become a much larger source market than it is now.

In this first quarter, there were over 235 million international arrivals globally, an increase of more than 89% compared to last year and a recovery of 80% compared to before the pandemic (in 2019). The number of international visitors in the first three months in Asia-Pacific accounted for more than one-fifth of the world market share with 49.7 million arrivals. Particularly, 5 South East Asian destinations (Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines) accounted for a total of more than 6%, reaching 15.7 million.

According to UNWTO, the recovery rate of international tourism in Asia-Pacific in Q1 was 54% compared to 2019. It was 61% in South East Asia. Thus, compared to the general recovery rate of the world (80%), Asia – Pacific was still far behind.

SEA tourism performance

According to official statistics, it can be seen that the tourism recovery rate of the 5 South East Asian countries is quite similar, ranging from 59% to 63%. The Philippines has the best performance, in contrast to Indonesia with the lowest recovery rate.

The ease of travel restrictions and the return of key source markets pushed the Q1 growth rate to 90% year-over-year. The evidence is that the number of international visitors to South East Asia was 13 times higher than in Q1 2022.

Regarding the number of international arrivals in the first quarter, the order was still Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines respectively. Thailand received a higher number of visitors than the total of the second and third ranks. Singapore’s number of visitors is 44.9%, while Vietnam’s only 41.7% compared to Thailand.

In terms of 2023 target rate, Vietnam still led with 33.74%. Singapore was farthest from the set target (20.78%).

Key source markets of SEA countries

In general, Asia remains the largest inbound market of South East Asia. Travel sentiment of Chinese tourists with outbound tourism is not really high. American tourists are increasingly showing interest in the region.

Thailand

In Q1, three of Thailand’s five largest tourist markets were in Asia, with the largest one being Malaysia (more than 14%). In general, the market share of the source markets in Thailand is quite evenly. It is not completely dependent on any market too much. Of the five SEA countries, only Thailand attracted a large number of Russian visitors (566,667 arrivals).

Singapore

The country was the top outbound destination for many Asian tourists in Q1 2023, namely Indonesia, China, Malaysia, and India. Australia is the only non-Asian market in the top 5 of Singapore’s source markets, ranking 4th with 249,537 arrivals.

Vietnam

4/5 of Vietnam’s key inbound markets are also in Asia. The top 5 source markets include South Korea, the US, Thailand, China and Taiwan, respectively. In which, Korean tourists accounted for nearly one third of total international visitors to Vietnam (810,938 arrivals). Vietnam is still showing its dependence on one market. In the first 3 months, the market share of the Korean market (30%) was nearly 4 times higher than that of the second market, the US (7.7%).

Indonesia

In Q1, Indonesia was a popular destination for many South East Asian markets including Malaysia, Singapore, and Timor Leste. Besides, China and Australia were also two main inbound markets of Indonesia.

The Philippines

The Philippines especially attracted visitors from many regions. The top 2 source markets of the Philippines are similar to Vietnam including South Korea and the US (accounting for more than 44% market share). South Korean tourists alone accounted for more than a quarter of its total international arrivals (361,985 arrivals, equivalent to 25.7%). The remaining three markets are Canada, Australia and Japan, respectively.

Highlights

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with largest numbers of international arrivals in Q1 2023:

1. Thailand: 6,477,538
2. Singapore: 2,909,520
3. Vietnam: 2,699,556

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with highest recovery rate in Q1 2023:

1. The Philippines: 63.77%
2. Indonesia: 62.17%
3. Thailand: 60.02%

Top 3 source markets of South East Asian destinations in Q1 2023:

1. South Korea: 1.84 million international visitors, accounting for 11.74%. During China’s shutdown and Chinese tourists were hesitant to travel overseas, Korea has become South East Asia’s largest source market. Before the pandemic, it was also one of the world’s leading source markets.
2. Malaysia: 1.68 million international visitors, accounting for 10.71%. Malaysia has not published data on tourism performance for the quarter. However, as recorded by other countries, Malaysia was the second largest source market, and the largest regional market of South East Asia.
3. USA: 0.952 million international visitors, accounting for 6.05%. US tourists still express their interest for South East Asia thanks to its unique culture, pleasant climate, low cost, majestic nature, etc.

In Q1 2023, the inbound tourism recovery in South East Asia was still lower than in the world, but there were signs of improvement with monthly growth. The largest source markets of five South East Asian countries are mainly in Asia. Australia and the US are two key non-Asian markets. During the low tourist season in Q2, will countries in the region maintain the current growth momentum?

Data from National Tourism Departments in South East Asia in March 2023 showed better signals over the previous two months. In general, there was an increase in inbound tourists compared to January and February, except for a slight decrease in Vietnam (Cambodia hasn’t updated). The growth rate of international visitors of the whole region in March increased by nearly 5 times compared to February.

The growth rate of inbound tourists better improves

Considering over 5 countries including Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines and Indonesia, the total number of international arrivals in March reached 5,420,067, an increase of 247,745 arrivals (equivalent to about 4.79%) compared to February. Previously, the number of visitors to Southeast Asian countries in February increased by only 1% compared to January. This is a quite good signal for the region’s tourism industry.

Thailand maintained its leading position in the top most visited destination in SEA with 2,219,040 foreign visitors in March, double higher than Singapore in the second place (118%), and triple higher than the third rank – Vietnam (149%).

However, regarding the number of international arrivals in March 2023, Vietnam is the only destination in the region to see a drop in total international arrivals (895,425 arrivals), down 4% compared to February 2023. Indonesia led in growth between February and March with an increase of 15.39%, followed by Singapore and Thailand.

Recovery and tourism target rate

The “champion” in recovery rate in the previous months, Cambodia, has not yet updated the data for March. Therefore, the Philippines temporarily led South East Asia in terms of recovery rate over the same period in 2019 (66.59%), closely followed by Singapore (65.38%) and Thailand (63.79%). After the 32nd SEA Games event, the host nation Cambodia is expected to make a significant mark on the number of inbound visitors in the coming months.

The 2023 target rate in the region was ranging from 20% to less than 34%. Vietnam still achieved the highest rate as of March (33.74%). Singapore continued to be the country with the lowest target rate (20.78%).

Highlights

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with largest numbers of international arrivals in March 2023:

1. Thailand: 2,219,040. Following a slight decrease in February, the number of international arrivals to Thailand in March increased by nearly 5%.
2. Singapore: 1,020,000. The target rate of the country was still the lowest (20.78%).
3. Vietnam: 895,425. Despite having the highest target rate and among the top 3 Southeast Asian countries to receive the most inbound visitors in Q1, Vietnam was the only destination to record a decrease.

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with highest recovery rate in March 2023:

1. The Philippines: 66.59%
2. Singapore: 65.38%
3. Thailand: 63.79%

Regarding aviation, the order of destinations with the highest seat capacity on flights to and from the region has not changed throughout 4 months. According to OAG, in April, Indonesia kept the first rank with 10,148,070 seats, followed by Thailand (6,047,377 seats), Vietnam (5,792,606), Philippines (4,339,133), Malaysia (4,274,854), and Singapore (2,875,056).

Hanoi – HCMC continued to be the busiest Domestic flight route in April with 917,814 seats (decreased by -9.04% compared to the previous month). The second place was the Jakarta – Bali route again (639,101 seats, increased by 16.53%). The third place changed. It was the Jakarta – Sumatera Utara route (516,624 seats) to replace Jakarta – South Sulawesi.

In the top 10 busiest International routes, Singapore, the international air hub of Southeast Asia, appeared 7 times, while occupying the top 3. The Kuala Lumpur – Singapore route was the busiest route in April with 409,946 seats, followed by the Jakarta – Singapore and Bangkok – Singapore routes.

In conclusion, in March 2023, South East Asia’s tourism performance was brighter when the growth rate of international arrivals increased by nearly 5 times in February. Nevertheless, the target rate is generally not very high (between 20-34%). According to UNWTO, in Q1, despite good signs, the Asia-Pacific region is still the region with the slowest tourism recovery pace in the world (54% of 2019 levels). The growth of nations in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to be better, especially with the return of China, the main source market of many countries. In addition, the peak season in the summer will also boost the region’s tourism recovery rate. However, as previously mentioned, expecting too much on a country or peak season without the right approach is not a good idea, especially in 2023, the final phase of recovery. Along with festivals and upcoming summer, April-May will see more divergence in tourism performance through growth rates and how each country reaches the target.

Based on the statistics of the National Tourism Departments in South East Asia in January, the tourism industry of countries in the region has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, they have recorded positive signals. The most obvious is that the tourism recovery rate was all above 50% compared to 2019.

In February 2023, countries maintained their performance compared to the previous month when the number of international arrivals did not change too much.

The number of inbound visitors remains stable

The number of inbound visitors to South East Asian countries in February did not differ much compared to January 2023. The difference in total arrivals to the region (through 6 countries) increased by just over 55,000 arrivals, or 1%.

The rankings had no change in February. Thailand still led with 2,113,550 inbound visitors, over 1% lower than January, although February was the time when China reopened its borders, and Thailand was expected to be the top destination for Chinese tourists.

Following Thailand were again Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and Cambodia, respectively. While Thailand and Indonesia decreased slightly in international tourists compared to January 2023, the remaining 4 countries saw a slight increase. Vietnam achieved the highest growth rate between January and February with an increase of 61.8 thousand arrivals, equivalent to 7%.

In general, they had not much growth or decline, and were almost unchanged from January despite the peak season for international tourism.

Recovery and tourism target rate

The recovery rate was quite positive. However, the number depends on the status and size of each country’s tourism. Without breakthroughs, it is for reference only. Cambodia recorded the best recovery rate in the region thanks to its open policies. It is likely that Cambodia will continue to perform well, especially in the second quarter as it will host the 32nd SEA Games in May.

Most countries have achieved just 10-20% of the target set this year. Vietnam still had the highest 2023 inbound tourism target rate (22.55%). Thailand and Singapore, the two South East Asian nations welcoming the most inbound visitors, saw the lowest target rate due to the large gap between the growth rate and the target.

Highlights

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with largest numbers of international arrivals in February 2023:

1. Thailand: 2,113,550. The country is still far from the goal (14.19%), and needs more strategies to reach the target of 30 million inbound visitors.
2. Singapore: 957,840. However, its target rate is the lowest in Southeast Asia (13.5%).
3. Vietnam: 932,969. The 2023 inbound tourism target rate is the highest in the region.

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with highest recovery rate in February 2023:

1. Cambodia: 72.72%
2. Singapore: 63.86%
3. Philippines: 60.77%

The aviation industry in March did not change much compared to the previous month. Indonesia still offered the most seats in flights in the region with 10,007,239 seats. The next were Thailand (6.3 million), Vietnam (5.9 million), Philippines (4.388 million), Malaysia (4.383 million), and Singapore (2.8 million seats).

In March, the busiest domestic flight route was the Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) route again with 1,000,775 seats. Overall, however, up to half of Southeast Asia’s largest domestic routes are in Indonesia.

Singapore still proves its role as the region’s international hub when accounting for 6 of the 10 busiest international routes in February. The Kuala Lumpur – Singapore route was the busiest (402,786 seats).

In general, the international tourism in the region had no changes compared to January. Countries hardly recorded any significant growth in February 2023, although the demand for air travel within and among countries in the region remained acceptable. Therefore, countries need more efforts, and depending on the goals, there should be flexible strategies to further boost the growth this year. Too much expectation on the immediate return of the Chinese market might do more harm than good. Maybe we can see the divergence in growth rate and recovery rate of countries in the region in March and April.

2022 is the first year of post-COVID recovery process, South East Asia tourism saw sharp growth compared to the previous year (UNWTO). However, in general, the tourism industry has not yet reached the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Last year, the South East Asian region welcomed a total of 35 million international arrivals. It accounted for 4% of the share in comparison with Asia – Pacific. The tourism recovery rate compared to 2019 decreased to 74.8% but increased to 1,094.5% compared to 2021, when travel restrictions were still tight.

This year, countries in the region are keeping efforts in tourism development. In the first two months of 2023, South East Asia has recorded many positive numbers, signaling a big year for the tourism industry.

Vietnam among destinations with the best tourism performance

In 2023, Vietnam tourism received some good signals in the first two months of the year. The country ranked first in top most visited destinations by international tourists in January, following only Thailand and Singapore. In addition, Vietnam also achieved the highest 2023 tourism target rate. In January, Vietnam welcomed 871,162 visitors, reaching 10.89% of 8 million international visitors target. In terms of tourism recovery rate compared to January 2019, the Philippines led with 64.17%.

Thailand still proves its great appeal as the Southeast Asian destination that welcomed the most international visitors (more than 2.1 million arrivals) in January. Following this momentum, the country is likely to reach the set target of 25 million international visitors. Following Thailand in terms of inbound visitors in January 2023 were Singapore, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and Cambodia, respectively.

In aviation, according to data from OAG, in February 2023, Indonesia provided more than 8.9 million seats by flights, ranking first in South East Asia. Next was Thailand with more than 5.6 million seats, closely followed by Vietnam (more than 5.5 million seats).

Highlights

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with largest numbers of international arrivals in January 2023:

1. Thailand: 2,144,948
2. Singapore: 931,650
3. Vietnam: 871,162

Top 3 South East Asian destinations with highest recovery rate in January 2023:

1. Philippines: 64.17%
2. Cambodia: 62.26%
3. Indonesia: 61.24%

Although it did not offer the highest seating capacity, Vietnam led in the top of the busiest domestic routes in the region. Specifically, the Hanoi – Ho Chi Minh City route reached a total capacity of more than 930,000 seats in February only. It is 63% and 94% higher than the 2nd and 3rd busiest routes, Jakarta – Bali and Jakarta – South Sulawesi, respectively. The two routes are both from Indonesia.

It can be seen that many destinations in South East Asia are recording positive statistics in tourism recovery. Each needs to continue to promote its strengths, while finding new strategic approaches that are appropriate and feasible for tourism to return to the way it was before.