Introduction

Large hotel groups and boutique brands are in a race to establish their presence in the ever-growing and competitive consumer market in Asia. To distinguish themselves, hotel brands must skillfully address emerging travel trends, meeting the increasing demand for self-planned trips, community involvement, and participation in sustainability efforts. Following a period of recovery from the global pandemic and economic decline, the Asian tourism sector is displaying signs of revitalization. In 2023, countries in Asia are witnessing a strong resurgence in tourism, marked by a significant increase in tourist arrivals, along with a resurgence of travel businesses and hotels capitalizing on growth opportunities and initiating new investment projects.

As we conclude 2023, a memorable journey for tourism industry, The Outbox Company (Outbox), in collaboration with Vero, is releasing the ASIA HOTEL BRAND BLUEPRINT 2023 report, providing readers with research data on Asian hotel market, offering a comprehensive view of the landscape for brands as well as the new shifts in traveler behavior within the region. Not only helping companies in the industry gain fresh insights into the hotel market in 2023, this white paper is also a crucial and useful source of information for predicting new opportunities and challenges in 2024.

In this report, to understand more about travelers’ preferences and brand perceptions, an online survey was conducted across seven Asian countries: Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Outbox utilized ASIA BRAND HOTEL SURVEY solution to provide in-depth insights into the level of awareness, familiarity, and perception of customers in the Asian region towards hotel brands.

Together with Outbox, Vero provides essential strategic advisories, specifically designed for hotel brands to thrive in the dynamic competitive landscape in Asia.

Key Content

The whitepaper “Asia Hotel Brand Blueprint 2023” includes 3 main parts:

1/ Asia Hotel Market

The Asian hotel market continues to grow as travel demand returns: Accordingly, the recovery is primarily driven by domestic tourism, while international arrivals to the region are increasing but still significantly below pre-pandemic levels. Hotel chains are expanding across Asia, with investments in hotels in the Asia-Pacific region experiencing a slight decrease due to difficulties from global economic downturn, such as rising interest rates, cost inflation, and increasing macroeconomic instability. Despite these challenges, there are still positive signs for the industry, and investors may continue long-term projects. However, hotel construction pipelines in the Asia-Pacific region remain robust, indicating a positive outlook for the region’s tourism sector.

2/ Asia Hotel Brand Blueprint

• Hotel Brand Awareness: Hilton is the top brand in the upper upscale segment with a brand awareness of 60.1%. This is significantly higher than the next closest competitor, Marriott, which has a brand awareness of 47,7%. IHG’s leadership in the midscale and upper-scale segments is a testament to the high awareness scores of its Holiday Inn and Holiday Inn Express brands. Two Asian giants, Lotte and Aston, are making waves in the upscale hotel segment, showcasing the growing strength and influence of Asian hospitality brands in the regional market.
  
  

  Most Popular Hotel Brands in Asia (by Market)

   

• Hotel Brand Familiarity: International hotel brands hold a significant advantage over local or regional brands in terms of brand familiarity across the Asia – Pacific region. This dominance suggests a strong preference among travelers in this market for the reliability and consistency that come with established global names.
• Hotel Brand Image: Brand values are evaluated by both rational (which are closely linked with the products/services itself) and those based on more emotional factors (which is how the brand makes people feel).

3/ Future Proofing Hotel Brands

Travel is undergoing a transformation anchored in three key shifts – self-planning, authenticity, and environmental awareness — are the driving forces behind the latest trends in travel, ushering in a new era of exploration and compelling hotel brands to offer services beyond the ordinary.

All details are contained in the full report “Asia Hotel Brand Blueprint 2023” released by The Outbox Company.

International tourism is steadily gaining momentum, while Southeast Asia (SEA) remains stable n in October 2023, with a minor 1.8% increase in international visitors from 6,193,292 to 6,305,273 (excluding Malaysia). Catch up more details about SEA tourism with the reading below!

During the first 9 months of 2023, as per the recent updates from UNWTO, global tourism is on a robust rebound, achieving 87% of pre-pandemic levels, totaling 975 million international arrivals. Despite progress, the SEA region lags behind with a recovery rate of 70%. In this October:

• Thailand maintains its leading position as the top destination for international visitors in the region. There was a slight upswing in tourist arrivals, with a 3.1% increase compared to September. 
• Singapore follows closely in second place, with a 6.7% decrease compared to September. 
• Vietnam has taken over Indonesia’s position and now ranks third, with a modest 5,5% rise in tourist arrivals compared to September in the region.

Additionally, while the Philippines and Cambodia experienced a modest increase, Indonesia went through a slight decrease compared to the previous month. 

Total SEA International Tourist Arrivals in OCT 2023

Recovery Rate and Tourism Targets

• Cambodia nearly achieves its target, with the highest recovery rate with 99.70%.
• Singapore maintains its position in second place with a recovery rate of 73.86%, while Indonesia secures the third spot with a recovery rate of 72.67%. 
• Vietnam has attributed an adjusted goal shifting from 8,000,000 to 12,000,000 visitors. 
• The other countries experienced a slight upturn when measured against the same period in 2019.

HIGHLIGHTS

Top 3 SEA Tourism Destinations with the Highest Number of International Visitors in October 2023

• Thailand: 2,197,017 international visitors, a 3.1% increase compared to September 2023
• Singapore: 1,130,000 international visitors, a 6.7% decrease compared to September 2023
• Vietnam: 1,112,526 international visitors, a 5.5% increase compared to September 2023, pushing Indonesia out of the top three.

Recovery Rate

• Cambodia achieved a recovery rate of 99.70%
• Singapore achieved a recovery rate of 73.86%
• Vietnam achieved a recovery rate of 72.67%.

Aviation

1. Domestic Landscape

The Hanoi (HAN) to Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) route remains the premier choice, experiencing a noteworthy 10% surge compared to the previous month in a total of 826,817 seats. 

Conversely, other domestic routes in the region witnessed a decline in demand. Following the HAN-SGN route is the Jakarta (CGK) to Kota Makassar (UPG) route with 537,670 seats, and to Bali with 492,881 seats.

2. International Landscape

Singapore maintains its prominence as a key hub in SEA tourism, with seven out of the top ten international routes in the region either starting or ending there. Accordingly, the routes from Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Bangkok to Singapore remain the busiest international routes in the region, despite a slight decrease compared to the previous month.

Covid-19, especially the 4th outbreak in Vietnam, has had a significant impact on the world tourism industry in general and Vietnam’s tourism industry in particular. As the return of international tourism may be far off, the travel sector’s revival after two years depends on domestic tourism. However, the disrupted every routine in day-to-day life as well as unpredictable Covid – 19 situations, it is certain that travelers won’t simply revert to doing exactly what they did before the pandemic. In light of unexpected ways of changing travelers’ psychological behavior, it is necessary to re-study the attitudes, thoughts and feelings about travel of domestic tourists in the path of tourism recovery.

Vietnam Travel Sentiment from Outbox shows that travelers’ confidence will take time to recover to the pre-pandemic level. After the closure period as well as the rapid spread of the disease, most tourists are still hesitant to participate in social gatherings. Concerns about their own safety as well as the appearance of new variants are still major barriers affecting the travelers’ willingness.

In addition to health concerns, a deteriorating financial situation is also a barrier that prevents them from traveling soon. Due to Covid – 19, consumers are facing a dual-front crisis—concerning both health and finances, which affects the willingness to travel again.

Although lockdown and travel restrictions are gradually lifted across the country, the time when Vietnamese travelers confidently return will be in Quarter 2 2022 as soonest. Besides, international tourism is still a long way from recovery as all participants agreed that they will only travel abroad when the pandemic is under control.

Let’s look forward to more useful findings and analysis from the report “Vietnamese Travel Sentiment” on January 19 at www.outbox-consulting.com!

International tourism continued its recovery in January 2022, with a much better performance compared to the weak start to 2021. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine adds pressure to existing economic uncertainties, coupled with many Covid-related travel restrictions still in place. Overall confidence could be affected and hamper the recovery of tourism.

Based on the latest available data, global international tourist arrivals more than doubled (+130%) in January 2022 compared to 2021 – the 18 million more visitors recorded worldwide in the first month of this year equals the total increase for the whole of 2021.

While these figures confirm the positive trend already underway last year, the pace of recovery in January was impacted by the emergences of the Omicron variant and the re-introduction of travel restrictions in several destinations. Following the 71% decline of 2021, international arrivals in January 2022 remained 67% below pre-pandemic levels.

1. Europe and Americas perform strongest

All regions enjoyed a significant rebound in January 2022, though from low levels recorded at the start of 2021. Europe (+199%) and the Americas (+97%) continued to post the strongest results, with international arrivals still around half pre-pandemic levels (-53% and -52%, respectively).

The Middle East (+89%) and Africa (+51%) also saw growth in January 2022 over 2021, but these regions saw a drop of 63% and 69% respectively compared to 2019. While Asia and the Pacific recorded a 44% year-on-year increase, several destinations remained closed to non-essential travel resulting in the largest decrease in international arrivals over 2019 (-93%).

2. Prospects for recovery

After the unprecedented drop of 2020 and 2021, international tourism is expected to continue its gradual recovery in 2022. As of 24 March, 12 destinations had no COVID-19 related restrictions in place and an increasing number of destinations were easing or lifting travel restrictions, which contributes to unleashing pent-up demand.

The war in Ukraine poses new challenges to the global economic environment and risks hampering the return of confidence in global travel. The US and the Asian source markets, which have started to open up, could be particularly impacted especially regarding travel to Europe, as these markets are historically more risk averse.

The shutdown of Ukrainian and Russian airspace, as well as the ban on Russian carriers by many European countries is affecting intra-European travel. It is also causing detours in long-haul flights between Europe and East Asia, which translates into longer flights and higher costs. Russia and Ukraine accounted for a combined 3% of global spending on international tourism in 2020 and at least US$ 14 billion in global tourism receipts could be lost if the conflict is prolonged. The importance of both markets is significant for neighbouring countries, but also for European sun and sea destinations. The Russian market also gained significant weight during the pandemic for long haul destinations such as Maldives, Seychelles or Sri Lanka. As destinations Russia and Ukraine accounted for 4% of all international arrivals in Europe but only 1% of Europe’s international tourism receipts in 2020.

3. Economic uncertainty and pressures

Even though it is too early to assess the impact, air travel searches and bookings across various channels showed a slowdown the week after the invasion but started to rebound in early March.

It is certain that the offensive will add further pressure to already challenging economic conditions, undermining consumer confidence and raising investment uncertainty. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates global economic growth could be more than 1% lower this year than previously projected, while inflation, already high at the start of the year, could be at least a further 2.5% higher. The recent spike in oil prices (Brent reached its highest levels in 10 years), and rising inflation are making accommodation and transport services more expensive, adding extra pressure on businesses, consumer purchasing power and savings, UNWTO notes.

This forecast is in line with the analysis on the potential consequences of the conflict on global economic recovery and growth by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), which has also downgraded its projection for world economic growth in 2022 from 3.6% to 2.6% and warned that developing countries will be most vulnerable to the slowdown.

Source: The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Emerging technologies transformed the travel and tourism businesses in the last three decades, as the internet became available to the masses and a wide variety of booking and informational e-platforms and other digital solutions emerged. Before the pandemic, solutions and initials of digital transformation in travel businesses such as contact tracing, contactless technologies, insurtech, etc., were already deployed. However, although some technologies had been previously utilised in the T&T industry, the COVID-19 brought significant attention to the importance of such technologies that could prevent, alert and help mitigate infectious diseases.

The report (The hard Reboot: Technology powers mobility) was published by Pacific Asia Travel Association, explores some technologies that provide greater resilience in the T&T industry and are already considered permanent fixtures in some geographies. We propose a seamless framework for travelers’ journeys that would combine previously used consumer technologies, such as OTAs and vehicle booking platforms, with technology tools to prevent and mitigate potential health threats and, therefore, to build greater resilience in the Travel & Tourism industry.

1. Real-time contact tracing

Effective contact tracing could allow authorities to trace the suspected patient’s moving history in the previous 14 days with ease. A study by Future Market Insights (2020)1 reported that the contact tracing market was valued at US$147 million in 2020 and will grow at 15% CAGR (compound average growth rate) through 2030. Although the main purpose of contact tracing platforms is to control infectious disease outbreaks, data privacy, child protection rights, and transparency remained as important concerns, which created opportunities for new companies to take a piece of the pie from existing market revenue share.

2. Disinfectant technology

Beyond preventing transmission through contact tracing, actual disinfection of physical areas and objects are just as important. The pandemic has pushed innovators to develop more efficient ways for disinfection. In New York, the Metro Transit Authority implemented UVC lighting in subways. Puro Lighting, a US-based startup, provided the lighting which eliminates almost all viruses immediately. We can expect airports, trains, and other mass transportation systems to adopt similar measures. The UV disinfection systems market is expected to register a CAGR of 11.2% over the forecast period, 2020-2025.

Low cost-effective preventive measures include Plexiglass barriers at front desks and also at dining areas in restaurants, with disinfecting wipes. Hotels could leave rooms empty for longer periods between a series of cleanings to make sure that any contamination is eliminated. Hotel rooms should be sealed before disinfection.

3. Solutions to ensure social distancing/crowd measurement and analytics

The first thing that comes to mind when tracking crowds during the COVID-19 pandemic is temperature. India-based Arvi, founded in 2019, develops contactless thermal scanning kiosks. Besides tracking crowds’ temperature, Sensory, a Silicon Valley company, provides a solution to detect people who do not wear a face mask, or detect people who cough and sneeze. This device can be integrated in corporate security software.

Aside from introducing thermal scanners at airports and transportation hubs to detect fever, the other important element when it comes to crowds is distancing, especially under the circumstances that infection rates might spike again. Airports will rely on visual sensors to optimise the traveler experience and ensure social distancing. For example, Zensors has created a technology that converts security cameras into sensors that automate space analytics which could subsequently help ensure that travelers keep their distance.

4. Contactless hospitality service

The utilisation of contactless service improves prevention procedures against infectious diseases and gained significant attention amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Hospitality providers are expected to further improve their services by minimising contact services by digitising check-ins so that guests could avoid lining up at the front desk. Travelio, a proptech apartment rental provider from Indonesia, provides safety and hygienic solutions for its guests, as they can now enter apartments with smart locks, which reduces human contact.

Hotels could implement property management software with mobile concierge apps so that guests could check in using digital keys, order meals and services, and access disinfection record logs. For the Chinese market, Marriott International has partnered with Alibaba Group’s Fliggy to install self-service kiosks powered by facial recognition technology for travellers to check-in upon their arrival. Its guest will need to scan their identity, take a photo, and input contact details; after the device verifies the identities, the device will then allocate room key cards. Other than that, Marriott International allows 31 of its hotels to allow travellers to check-in, access loyalty programmes and guest service requests through its newly launched mobile application. Connected hotel systems have proven effective in reducing the overall turnover time by automating bookings and communication with guests.

5. Contactless airport check-in and baggage drop-off services

In the post-pandemic world, heightened standards on health and safety will drive decisions in the travel industry. The use of contactless technology is expected to grow, as this can reduce transmission rates. Many stakeholders in the aviation, hospitality and other tourism-related sectors will likely push for “contactless” travel.

With the rise of contactless travel, biometric facial recognition technology will play a crucial role in verifying an individual’s identity and bookings. The biometrics industry includes products and services for fingerprint recognition, voice recognition, and palm & vein recognition. Currently, most airports are still relying on an automated fingerprint identification system (AFIS), an outdated biometric identifier technology that uses contact for identifying an individual. However, with the emergence of various infectious diseases, more airports will opt for an alternative identification system that enables contactless identifications. One of such solutions is Hanwang Technology, developed by a Beijing-based facial recognition solution company, which can identify an individual even if they are wearing a mask. Another solution to provide safe and contactless baggage check-in and drop-off services is from DUBZ, a UAE-based startup founded in 2016, which has developed a home check-in service that provides baggage disinfection.

6. Healthcare and insurance technology

Amid the pandemic, more consumers observed the benefits of healthcare technology, and demand for tools to access healthcare remotely is expected to increase henceforward. Israel-based Air Doctor offers the simple solution of finding local doctors and scheduling appointments while abroad. NCOVI is a mobile application founded in Vietnam for locals to complete health declarations online to keep track of the public’s medical conditions.

In the era of COVID-19, with travel being disrupted, many travellers faced financial loss, which subsequently made them realise the importance of possessing an insurance policy that protects their interest in the unforeseeable future. France-based Koala is reinventing travel insurance by compensating for flight disruptions, which could especially benefit business travellers and help travellers maintain confidence in uncertain times.

7. Practicing flexibility with personalized travel

The trend of personalisation in travel tech will have a renewed meaning. Recently, Journera, a startup focused on creating a seamless journey, raised US$11.6 million. Journera provides a solution to match hotel reservations to air, ground, or other relevant reservations to drive better personalisation. When its users face flight disruption, Journera will automatically help its users rebook reservations in the travel destination, notify hoteliers to get the room ready before the customer arrives, and deliver bags straight to the hotel room, so users do not have to wait at the carousel.

8. Fintech solutions tailored to business travel

In addition, contactless payment is desired by travellers, as well. In a survey of 1,260 business travellers conducted by global corporate travel management company BCD Travel, 67% said that contactless payment systems were extremely important. This strong preference will favour merchants that accept mobile wallets or enable a mobile-based shopping experience in airports.

Today, the contactless payments industry is estimated to be valued at roughly US$10.3 billion. In an effort to combat the pandemic, countries have increased contactless payment transaction limits significantly, presenting a strong tailwind for the contactless payments industry. Even countries that historically favoured cash payments are increasing adoption of contactless payments. According to Forbes, “The global contactless payments market sise is expected to go from US$10.3 billion in 2020 to US$18 billion in the next five years, which corresponds to an 11.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)”.

Source: Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA)

Covid-19, especially the 4th outbreak in Vietnam, has had a significant impact on the world tourism industry in general and Vietnam’s tourism industry in particular. As the return of international tourism may be far off, the travel sector’s revival after two years depends on domestic tourism. However, the disrupted every routine in day-to-day life as well as unpredictable Covid – 19 situations, it is certain that travelers won’t simply revert to doing exactly what they did before the pandemic. In light of unexpected ways of changing travelers’ psychological behavior, it is necessary to re-study the attitudes, thoughts and feelings about travel of domestic tourists in the path of tourism recovery.

Vietnam Travel Sentiment from Outbox shows that travelers’ confidence will take time to recover to the pre-pandemic level. After the closure period as well as the rapid spread of the disease, most tourists are still hesitant to participate in social gatherings. Concerns about their own safety as well as the appearance of new variants are still major barriers affecting the travelers’ willingness.

In addition to health concerns, a deteriorating financial situation is also a barrier that prevents them from traveling soon. Due to Covid – 19, consumers are facing a dual-front crisis—concerning both health and finances, which affects the willingness to travel again.

Although lockdown and travel restrictions are gradually lifted across the country, the time when Vietnamese travelers confidently return will be in Quarter 2 2022 as soonest. Besides, international tourism is still a long way from recovery as all participants agreed that they will only travel abroad when the pandemic is under control.

Let’s look forward to more useful findings and analysis from the report “Vietnamese Travel Sentiment” on January 19 at www.outbox-consulting.com!

With 2021 ending, many are wondering what to expect of the New Year as the Omicron variant breaks news headlines around the world. The team of analysts at ForwardKeys, step back to examine some of the key learnings as they review 2021 from the perspective of a travel professional and highlight the top trends.

1. US Leisure travel drives recovery

A comparison of the world’s top destination cities, before the pandemic in 2019, and throughout 2021, illustrates the strong trend towards leisure travel leading to the recovery. Several major cities have been pushed down or out of the top 20 rankings, whereas major leisure destinations, particularly for US holidaymakers, have climbed high.

While Dubai remains at the top of the list (it is a major leisure destination as well as a substantial travel and commerce hub), the most notable rises include, Miami, from 18th to 5th, Madrid from 16th to 10th and new into the list. The two highest risers, Cancun, and Miami are both major leisure destinations popular with US holidaymakers. Most of the new entrants lower down the list are also leading leisure destinations, popular with European holidaymakers.

2. Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and Africa are the most resilient

A review of worldwide travel in 2021, broken down by region, reveals the extent to which international travel was paralysed. Overall, international air travel was just over a quarter (26%) of its pre-pandemic level. The Asia Pacific region reached just 8%; whereas Europe achieved 30%, Africa & the Middle East 36% and the Americas 40%.

A comparison of travel between the first and second halves of the year (H1 and H2) shows that global international travel more than doubled from 16% of pre-pandemic levels to 36%. However, the recovery was extremely uneven.

Within the regions, some countries were much more resilient to the impact of COVID-19 on travel than others. The stand-out destinations which best maintained their visitor numbers were Central America, particularly El Salvador and Belize, and the Caribbean – all holiday hotspots for US tourists. Many of them managed to record visitation rates above 60% of 2019 levels throughout the year. The same degree of travel resilience was true of around two dozen countries in Africa. However, their level of resilience is a little less noteworthy because many of them have economies that are much less dependent on tourism.

3. The Middle East starts to revive

Travel to various Middle East destinations and also exceeded the 60% benchmark in H2. Most notably, travel to Turkey climbed from 33% in H1 to 67% in H2 of pre-pandemic levels and travel to Egypt grew from 37% to 72%. Dubai held its position as the top city destination, and Doha overtook Dubai as an air transit hub.

4. Domestic travel has been dominant, particularly in large-sized countries

While many countries have been able to impose severe restrictions on international travel, citing the need to keep their populations safe, imposing equally stiff constraints on one’s populations is politically more challenging. Consequently, there has been a relative rise in domestic travel, particularly in geographically large countries such as Brazil, China, Russia, and the USA, where it is possible to fly for a few hours without crossing the border.

In China, domestic travel volumes returned to pre-pandemic levels as early as September 2020; however, they fell back in January and again in August, owing to a resurgence in cases of COVID19. In Brazil, Russia, the US and China, domestic travel rose respectively to 148%, 128%, 87% and 76% of pre-pandemic levels in the second half of 2021, compared to 50%, 28%, 39% and 1% for international travel.

5. Major European airlines struggle disproportionately

Largely due to the trend towards domestic travel in large countries, airlines in those markets have managed to weather the COVID-19 storm better than carriers whose business has been more oriented towards short-haul international travel. This is illustrated by an analysis of the top 20 airlines in 2021 compared to 2019. The major European carriers have all fallen or are out of the ranking; and they have been replaced by airlines that have substantial business in China and the US, which have been better able to maintain capacity.

For example, Ryanair and EasyJet, the two largest European carriers, have fallen from 5th and 8th position respectively, to 7th and 16th. Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France, Europe’s largest legacy carriers, have fallen out of the top 20 list, as have Emirates and Air Canada. They have been replaced by Shenzhen, JetBlue, Spirit, Hainan, and Xiamen.

6. The decline in long-haul travel

A comparison of international travel within the major world regions, intra-regional travel, and between world regions, extra-regional (or long-haul) travel, reveals that there has been a shift away from long-haul travel during the pandemic. In 2019 the ratio of intra-regional to extra-regional travel was 56%:44%; but in 2021, that had changed to 62%:38%. The pattern has also changed, with a greater proportion of people within Europe and the Americas travelling intra-regionally rather than the long haul.

The trend can be explained by a combination of several factors, including the effective closure of one region of the world, Asia Pacific, the increased cost, and difficulty of travelling long haul during the pandemic and frequently changing pandemic travel regulations, which deter people from booking long-haul travel, as it is typically booked and planned with much longer lead times.

7. Doha and Amsterdam advance in the battle of the hubs

In the battle of the hubs, Doha overtook Dubai to become the preeminent hub airport in the Middle East, connecting air traffic between South Asia, the Middle East, North America, and Sub-Saharan Africa. In Europe, Amsterdam closed the gap on Frankfurt for intra-European transits and connections with North America.

Pre-pandemic, the top ten list of global hub airports was headed by Dubai with a 7.7% market share of intercontinental flight connections. It was followed by Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Doha, Istanbul, Paris, Hong Kong, Munich, London, and Abu Dhabi. In 2021, it was headed by Amsterdam, with an 8.3% share of intercontinental flight connections. Analysis of monthly traffic in 2021 shows that Amsterdam briefly overtook Frankfurt in September and October, but it fell back in November. In the same month, Dubai recovered its lead over Doha for the first time since February.

8. New variants pose a potent threat

A chart plotting the recovery in air travel shows relatively steady growth from the first quarter of 2021 when traffic was less than 20% of 2019 levels to the fourth quarter when it had climbed to over 50%. However, there were two setbacks: the first began during the week of 12 March, when the growth in weekly bookings turned from +11% to -10%, as the Delta variant began to sweep around the world. The second began in the last week of October when weekly bookings reached their highest point, 64% of the same week in 2019. Bookings have been slowing down ever since; and in late November, they were down to 54% of 2019 levels, which was closely correlated with a fresh rise in COVID-19 cases since late October.

Source: ForwardKeys