Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has proposed scenarios of international tourist recovery in the coming times. Following a sharp increase in annual international arrivals in 2022, prediction suggests that growth will peak in 2023 before slowing down by 2025. It is because the pent-up travel demand is gradually released.
In the “Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2023-2025” report for 39 destinations, PATA forecasts visitor numbers will be back to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2023. In the worst scenario, it may not be until the end of 2025 that the number will still be 12% below 2019 levels.
Forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region (2023-2025) show that the number of international visitors will increase significantly. However, it depends on many factors including the situation of each destination. For instance, the annual growth rate of international arrivals to Asia is predicted to be 254% by 2023 under the best-case scenario, 171% under the medium scenario, and 127% under the worst one. The numbers are based on the fact that China is gradually reopening to domestic and outbound tourism.
Other destinations of the Asia-Pacific region are not expected to grow as strongly as Asia. Nevertheless, the growth rate will reach a remarkable speed and remain positive throughout the 2023-2025 period.
Despite the positive signals in the latest forecast, PATA President Peter Semone said challenges remain. They include variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the global economic downturn, persistent geopolitical or trade wars, and climate change. Besides, he also said that growth in Asia-Pacific destinations is not the same as there are still local disruptions. Another important thing he pointed out is the change from merely marketing the destination to assessing visitor needs in a responsible and sustainable way. Finally, he emphasized the human resource for the tourism industry greatly affected by the pandemic. Getting them back to work is difficult, unless working conditions are improved.